War in Ukraine: What does it mean for strategic planning?

The Russian attack against Ukraine has lasting effects that make it necessary to adjust the premises for futurology as well as for strategic planning, in politics, business and administration.

Violation of accepted norms and values
The principle of world order threatened by the Russian invasion is based on the expectation that common challenges, including climate change, will lead to collective consensus concerning their management and thus ultimately to a convergence of fundamental societal values. Russia evades respect for accepted norms and values through its arbitrary interpretation of the principle of sovereignty and its goal of restoring 19th- and 20th-century geopolitical structures by force.

Limited options for action
The Western community’s options for action are limited. Economic sanctions are more likely to be effective only in the short term. It is not to be expected that a change in values will occur in the medium term, leading to new patterns of conflict solution and thus simultaneously creating the basis for a sustainably favorable investment climate.

Impacts not yet fully comprehensible
The lasting effects for business and government are not yet fully clear, even though differentiated forecasting models and alternative scenarios have already been developed. It is important to know the value chains in order to identify and assess the risks of supply and payment shortfalls and to look for substitutes in the case of disruptions that are considered to be persistent.

Increased planning reliability through artificial intelligence
Artificial intelligence helps to forecast supply gaps and possibilities for closing them in alternative scenarios. This increases the chances of identifying fields of action for innovations and improvements and thus avoiding excessive fluctuations in the supply of resources. Last but not least, the greater resistance to politically motivated attempts at extortion also increases entrepreneurial planning security.

What can you expect from moderning?
moderning supports you in the assessment of current challenges and the identification of relationships with regard to framework conditions, the market and the value chain. This is followed by the presentation and selection of probable future scenarios and the development of the promising innovation strategy. And moderning offers special expertise in the implementation to achieve your strategic success position.